南方稻区季节性干旱农户适应行为及其影响因素实证分析

气候异常给我国粮食生产带来的影响成为当前社会各界关注的焦点。受全球气候变暖影响,大范围持续性干旱成为农业生产的最严重威胁,特别是近年来南方稻区季节性干旱问题日趋严重,已严重危害到我国经济社会的和谐健康发展。因此,如何适应季节性干旱已成为当前全社会普遍关注的话题,农户作为农业生产的微观决策主体,其适应季节性干旱行为选择如何,其影响因素有哪些?此问题的解决是实现科学减灾的前提和基础。因此,论文利用南方稻区江西省41个县755份农户调查样本数据,从理论与实证上分析了季节性干旱农户适应行为及其影响因素,统计结果表明：面对季节性干旱时,68.6%的农户会采取相应的适应行为,并且补种（苗）、改种其他作物、调整播种和收获日期是农户最优先考虑采用的适应措施,而资金和劳力是农户采取适应行为措施最主要的限制因素。利用Probit回归模型、Poisson回归模型和Tobit回归模型实证分析了季节性干旱农户适应行为措施选择、采用规模和采用强度的影响因素,计量结果表明：社区资本、干旱发生频率、防灾信息的可获性等因素对农户适应行为采用意愿、规模和强度有正向影响,而所在村距最近公路远近和所处的地形特征对农户适应行为采用意愿、规模和强度有负向影响。因此,需要进一步丰富社区资本、加强农户防灾信息可获性以及加强交通基础设施建设等方面以促进农户采纳适应措施的积极性。

The Empirical Analysis of Farmers' Adaptation Behavior to Seasonal Drought in Southern Rice GrowingArea and Its Influencing Factors

The impact of climate change on food production in China has become the focus of public attention. Affected by global warming, wide range of continuous drought has become the most serious threat to agricultural production. In recent years, seasonal drought in the southern China became more and more serious, which has seriously harmed the development of the society and economy in our country. Therefore, how to adapt to seasonal drought has become a common concerned topic of the whole society. As the subject of micro decision-making in agricultural production sector, farmers play an important role in choosing adaptive behaviors to seasonal drought, so study on farmers' behaviors and their influence factors is the precondition and foundation to scientifically reduce the disaster. Based on the survey data of 755 households in 41 counties of Jiangxi Province, we analyzed farmers' adaptation behaviors to seasonal drought and the influencing factors from theoretical and empirical perspectives of view. The statistical results show that 68.6% of the farmers will take corresponding behaviors when facing the seasonal drought, that replanting (seedling), switching to other crops, and adjusting the sowing and harvest dates are the most preferred adaptive measures of farmers, while the capital and labor force are the most important limiting factors for farmers to choose adaptive measures. By using Probit regression model, Poisson regression model and Tobit regression model, this paper empirically analyzed the impact factors of farmers' adaptation behaviors to seasonal drought and their relations with the scale and intensity of the behaviors. The results show that social capital, drought occurrence frequency, and the availability of disaster prevention information have positive effects on framers' willingness of adopting behaviors and the scale and intensity of the behaviors, while the distance to the nearest highway has negatively effect on the framers' willingness of adopting behaviors and the scale and intensity of the behaviors.