2000—2014年四川省气溶胶时空格局及其驱动因子定量研究

论文研究四川省2000—2014年气溶胶光学厚度的时空演变趋势,并综合自然和人为两方面因素,从区域尺度上对四川省气溶胶光学厚度演变的驱动力进行定量研究,更进一步从像元尺度上分析驱动力的空间分异。结果表明：1）四川省以中部盆地为气溶胶光学厚度高值中心区且增长趋势最为明显,川东平行岭谷值较小且有轻度减少趋势,川西高原、川西南山地值最小,但有轻度增长趋势;2）区域尺度上,对气溶胶光学厚度驱动力主导因子进行定量研究,建立了气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）与GNP、降水量和归一化植被指数的多元回归模型,即AOD=0.849+0.567×GNP-0.909×降水量-0.077×归一化植被指数,该模型较好地体现了在更为宏观的区域层面上四川省气溶胶光学厚度演变驱动力的定量作用;3）像元尺度上,驱动力的空间分异表现为中部盆地气溶胶光学厚度主要受人为和地表因素影响,川东平行岭谷、川西高原和川西南山地气溶胶光学厚度受气象和地表因素影响较多。由于川渝地区秋冬季多云雾,有效的气溶胶卫星观测数据偏少,因此如何在秋冬季获取气溶胶光学厚度有效数据是未来应加强的工作;在驱动力因子方面人为因子的选取划分可以进一步具体化;由点到面的插值会影响驱动力因子数据的精度,故如何通过高精度的插值方法来提高数据的精度亦是未来提高驱动力定量研究准确性的发展方向。

Quantitative Study on Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Aerosol Optical Depth and Its Driving Forces in Sichuan Province during 2000-2014

The paper studied the trend of temporal and spatial changes of aerosol optical depth from 2000 to 2014 in Sichuan Province, and quantitatively analyzed the driving forces of the evolution of the aerosol optical depth in Sichuan Province on regional scale by combining natural and artificial factors, and further analyzed the spatial differentiation of driving forces on pixel scale. From this research, we concluded that: 1) The aerosol optical depth at the central Sichuan Province is the biggest and its growth trend is the most obvious, and the value in the parallel ridge valley of eastern Sichuan is smaller and shows a mild decrease trend, while the values in western Sichuan Plateau and southwestern mountainous area are the smallest and have mild growing trends. 2) On the regional scale, we quantitatively studied the dominant driving forces of aerosol optical depth, and established the multivariate regression model of the aerosol optical depth with relation to GNP, precipitation and normalized vegetation index: AOD=0.849+0.567×GNP-0.909×precipitation-0.077×NDVI. The model reflected the quantitative effects of driving forces on the regional level. 3) On the pixel scale, the aerosol optical depth of Sichuan Basin has been mainly affected by human and earth surface factors, and the aerosol optical depth in eastern parallel valley area, western Sichuan Plateau and southwestern mountainous area has been mainly affected by the earth surface and meteorology factors. Because of the cloudy weathers in fall and winter in Sichuan-Chongqing region, there is less effective aerosol satellite observation data, so acquiring the aerosol optical thickness data in fall and winter should be strengthened, the anthropogenic factors should be divided more specifically, and high-precision interpolation method should be used to improve the accuracy of the driving factors data. These are the directions which can improve the accuracy of quantitative research of the driving force.