森林经营主体的碳汇供给潜力差异及影响因素研究

增加森林碳汇已成为应对气候变化的重要举措。论文基于浙江、江西和福建三省农户和林场的调研数据,以杉木为案例树种,引用生长模型、修正的Faustmann 模型碳密度和价格数据,对单一和碳汇木材复合经营目标下的杉木最佳轮伐期和林地期望值进行了分析,并基于此比较了不同森林经营主体碳汇供给潜力的差异,同时模拟了不同营林成本和利率水平下对森林经营主体碳汇供给差异造成的影响。可以发现,在可能的碳汇林经营模式下,基于目前杉木市场价格远高于碳价格的现实,森林经营主体的经营采伐决策并不会发生明显改变,从而导致在大范围的碳价格变动下碳汇的供给也没有显著增加,这也说明木材收益和碳收益的两个不同经营目标是协调的;林场凭借着规模、技术和资金等资源禀赋优势将成为今后碳汇林的适宜经营和供给主体;从影响因素来看,目前市场利率处于低位徘徊的前提下,即碳汇林地的潜在投资价值巨大,尤其对劣等土地的投资效果明显;理论上营林成本会提升继而导致碳汇供给增加,这反而对于森林固碳有显著正面影响。

Research on the Carbon Supply Potential Capacity Difference and Its Impact Factors of Forest Management Subjects

Increase of forest carbon sequestration is widely accepted as an important strategy for mitigating climate change. Based on rural households'and national state forest farms'survey data collected in the provinces of Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi, Faustmann model was applied to analyze the optimal rotation age and forest land expectation value between traditional timber management and combined timber and carbon management for Chinese fir in this study. It compared the carbon supply potential capacity difference of forest management subjects, and sensitivity analysis was also conducted with different interest rate and management cost to simulate the influence on the carbon supply. It was found that the optimal rotation of Chinese fir in the joint management for households and national state forest farms has not changed due to the fact that timber price is much higher than carbon price, suggesting that optimal decision for Chinese fir management will not change significantly and carbon sequestration supply for current forest land would not change within a large range change of carbon price. The object of carbon benefit and traditional management can be coordinated. National state forest farms is much more suitable for carbon supply due to the advantage of management scale, technologies and capital. The potential invest value of carbon forest is much more higher in the low interest rate, and higher management cost can make higher carbon supply.