农业化学投入与农业经济增长脱钩关系研究——基于华东6省1市数据

论文选取华东6省1市2001—2014年的数据,分析了农业面源污染控制背景下的农业化学与农业经济增长的Tapio脱钩关系,并通过LMDI分解将农业化学投入增长的影响因素归结为规模效应、耕地效应和效率效应,最后对2014年华东6省1市农业化学效率状况进行K-means聚类。结果表明：农业面源污染控制背景下,农业化学与农业经济增长呈现出从扩张性负脱钩到相对脱钩,再到绝对脱钩的转变;农业化学投入物量的增加主要来自于耕地效应的作用,效率效应可以减缓农业化学投入物量的增长,规模效应的作用不明显;从空间格局的聚类结果上看,上海、江苏、浙江、福建、江西和山东的农业经济增长对农业化学品生产资料依赖程度较低,安徽省的依赖程度较高。总之,农业经济可以在农业化学化控制背景下得到持续增长,农业面源污染要得到进一步的控制,需要在采用多种农业增效手段、提高农业化学投入利用效率和采取差异化的区域农业化学投入减量控制政策着手。

Research on Decoupling Relationship between Agricultural Chemical Inputs and Agricultural Economic Growth: Based on the Data of Six Provinces and One City in East China

This paper selects agricultural chemicals and economic data of six provinces and one city in East China from 2001-2014 and analyzes Tapio decoupling relationship between agricultural chemistry and agricultural economic growth in the context of agricultural non-point source pollution control. The paper decomposes the factors of the agriculture chemical input with LMDI decomposition and then clusters agricultural chemical efficiency of provinces in East China by K-means. The results show that with the growth of agricultural output, the agrochemical inputs amount of six provinces and one city in East China showed a trend of “first increase and then decrease” during 2001-2014. Under the background of agricultural non-point source pollution control, the relationship between agricultural chemistry and agricultural economic growth presents absolute decoupling relationship. Agricultural economic growth and environmental resource protection can be developed coordinately, and the agricultural non-point source pollution control policy can be sustainably implemented based on the adjustment of agricultural chemical participation. The increase of agricultural chemical inputs is mainly caused by the land effect. The efficiency effect can slow down the growth of agricultural chemical inputs. The increase of agricultural output value of per unit, which depends on the agricultural chemicals production, is the driving force of the rapid increase of agricultural chemical inputs, and the progress of science and technology of agricultural chemicals production can reduce the amount of agricultural chemical inputs and ensure agricultural output value per unit area. There is great spatial difference in the dependence of the agricultural economy growth on agricultural chemicals. The dependence of agricultural economy growth on agricultural chemical is higher in Anhui Province. In short, agricultural economic can grow sustainably if agricultural non-point source pollution is controlled. To control agricultural chemicals, we need to improve the utilization rate of agricultural chemistry, use a variety of agricultural efficiency means and take the regional differences in consideration.