中国能源生产和消费大省的能源供给安全综合评价及优化——以陕西省和广东省为例

以陕西省和广东省为案例省份,从能源供给盈余缺口情况、能源供给现状及存在的问题方面,对能源生产大省和能源消费大省的能源供给发展历史及当前存在的问题进行深入剖析。构建中国区域能源供给安全综合评价指标体系,基于熵值法确定指标权重,运用综合评分法、GM（1, 1）灰色预测模型对陕西省和广东省2000—2011年的能源供给安全水平进行综合评价,对其未来发展趋势进行预测,并进行差异性比较研究。结果显示：以陕西省为代表的能源生产大省和以广东省为代表的能源消费大省的能源供给安全水平两极分化态势明显,总体来看陕西省的能源供给安全水平呈上升趋势,能源供给安全指数介于0.27~0.47之间,而广东省的能源供给安全水平呈下降趋势,能源供给安全指数介于0.23~0.31之间,预测显示至2020年这一趋势将继续延续。针对陕西省和广东省的能源供给安全状况和实际存在的问题提出差异化的政策建议,为保障不同能源类型省份能源供给安全提供科学参考。

Assessment and Optimization on Energy Supply Security of High Energy Producing and High Energy Consumption Provinces in China: Cases Study of Shaanxi and Guangdong Provinces

From the current situation and problems of energy supply, we deeply analyzed the history and current issues of energy supply in high energy producing and high energy consumption provinces in China by taking Shaanxi and Guangdong provinces as cases. From the perspective of China regional energy supply security, the article built a comprehensive evaluation index system. The entropy method was applied to determine the weights of all indices. Using comprehensive scoring method the article comprehensively evaluated the energy supply security level of Shaanxi and Guangdong from 2000 to 2011. The trend was predicted based on gray prediction model GM(1, 1), and the differences of Shaanxi and Guangdong were compared. The results show that the energy supply security level is clearly polarized between Shaanxi as the representative of high energy producing provinces and Guangdong as the representative of high energy consumption provinces. Overall, the energy supply security level of Shaanxi shows a rising trend from 2000 to 2011with the energy supply security index between 0.27 and 0.47, while that of Guangdong declined with the energy supply security index between 0.23 and 0.31. According to the prediction the trends will continue till 2020. In view of regional differences in energy supply security between Guangdong and Shaanxi, several policies are recommended to provide scientific reference for energy supply security of different energy type provinces.