中国木材产业发展的阶段识别及时空分异特征

论文基于产业生命周期理论及探索性空间数据分析方法,运用1954—2014年各省木材产量数据对中国木材产业的发展阶段以及时空格局变化规律展开了分析。研究表明：1） Gompertz模型显示木材产业处于产业生命周期的成长阶段;2）探索性空间数据分析显示木材产业具有明显的地域转移趋势和显著的区域聚集特征,尤其在2000年以后,南方集体林区逐渐形成了木材生产“热点”;3）根据重心模型显示的移动轨迹,可以将木材产业发展分为三个时期,即经济驱动时期、经济驱动与生态驱动相持时期、生态驱动时期,木材产业的时空格局演变是这两种驱动力量相对均衡的结果。根据研究结论,提出了重视森林资源培育、适时放开采伐限额、由行政监督向购买社会服务转变等促进木材产业发展的建议。

Development Stage and Spatiotemporal Evolution of China’s Timber Industry

Stable supply of timber is necessary to maintain international market share of timber forest products. As the largest exporter of timber forest products, China faces the challenge that the supply of the timber reduces continuously in recent years. Facing the complex and volatile situation, it’s of critical significance for China to make corresponding policy and long-term planning. Based on industry life cycle theory and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), this paper researched the development stages and spatial distribution characteristics of timber industry using provincial timber yield data from 1954 to 2014. The data were collected from China Forestry Statistical Yearbook. Gompertz model was applied to measure the stages of timber industry development, and ESDA methods including space Gini coefficient, local Getis-Ord index and center-of-gravity approach were applied to show the temporal and spatial change of timber industry. The results are as follows: 1) Gompertz model lnQ_t=8.763 2+0.950 1^t× (-1.077 6)] showed China’s timber industry is in the growth phase of cyclical fluctuation. 2) ESDA showed significant regional transferring trend and regional gathering characteristics of the industry. Especially after 2000, the local Getis-Ord index showed that the collective forest area in South China became the hot spot of timber production. 3) According to center-of-gravity approach, the gravity center of the industry migrated from Northeast China to Southwest China during the last 60 years. And it could be divided into three periods according to the driving forces of timber industry development, economy-drive stage (1954-1978), stalemate stage of economy-drive and ecology-drive (1978-2000) and ecology-drive stage (since 2000). The spatiotemporal evolution of timber industry can be seen as the result of the balance between economic force and ecology force. According to the research results, some suggestions were given, such as giving priority to the cultivation of forest resources, releasing the quota policy, and turning to social services instead of administrative supervision.