水资源利用系统脆弱性机理分析与评价方法研究

水资源系统脆弱性是当前水问题研究的热点问题，在综合脆弱性和脆弱性分层面两方面需深入研究。论文通过对水资源利用系统脆弱性形成过程的分析，从水资源自然禀赋、水资源开发利用程度和用水效率等方面，构建符合过程机理的水资源利用系统脆弱性模型，旨在对脆弱性分层面进行深入研究。针对当联系分量系数取值具有峰值较宽的分布特征时，可能导致基于三角模糊数的联系数存在较大误差的问题，进一步分析差异度系数取值的特征，以标准阈值为参数构造差异度系数的梯形模糊数，提出基于梯形模糊数联系数的评价方法，并应用于安徽省水资源利用系统脆弱性评价。应用结果表明，2001—2014年安徽省水资源利用系统脆弱性等级在3.611～2.493之间呈波动变化，2014年水资源利用系统脆弱性为轻脆弱，较2001年中度脆弱有明显改善；该方法避免了联系分量系数取值具有峰值较宽的分布特征时可能存在较大误差，能更准确地反映水资源利用系统脆弱性客观实际状况。

Mechanism and Evaluation Method of Water Resources Utilization System ulnerability

Water resources system vulnerability has gradually become a hot topic in water issues in recent years. Hereinto, integrated vulnerability and vulnerabilities at different levels need to be further explored. Based on the analysis of the formation process of water resources utilization system vulnerability, the model of water resource utilization system vulnerability was built considering total water resources, development and utilization degree of water resources, water-use efficiency, etc. The goal was to further clarify the mechanism of water resources utilization system at different levels. When the contact component coefficient has the distribution characteristic of a wide peak, a bigger error of contact number based on triangular fuzzy number might be obtained. To solve this problem, the characteristics of the difference degree coefficient were further analyzed, and the trapezoidal fuzzy number of difference coefficients was constructed by using the standard threshold as parameters. The assessment model was established by using connection numbers of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The model was applied in vulnerability assessment of water resources system in Anhui Province. The results showed: the grade of water resources utilization system vulnerability in Anhui Province had a fluctuation between 3.611 and 2.493 from 2001 to 2014. Compared with the moderate vulnerability in 2001, the water resource utilization system vulnerability in 2014 was reduced significantly to a low level. This method avoids the errors when the value of the contact component coefficient has a wide peak, and can accurately reflect the objective reality of the water resource utilization system.