山东省太阳总辐射的时空变化特征分析

基于山东境内17 个气象站1961—2012 年逐日日照时数资料,利用Angstrom 公式估算各站点太阳总辐射,并利用空间插值法、线性倾向估计和Pettitt 突变检验方法对全年和四季太阳总辐射的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:1961—2012 年山东地区多年平均年太阳总辐射的变化范围为4 814.3~5 338.8 MJ/m²,地区间差异大,全年太阳总辐射的空间分布特征为北部多、南部少;全年和夏季太阳总辐射时间序列在全部17 个站点趋于减小趋势,且除威海外,均达到至少0.05 显著性水平;除春季和秋季各有3 个和1 个站点太阳总辐射呈增大趋势外,其余站点春季、秋季和冬季太阳总辐射均呈减小趋势;全年和各季节太阳辐射减小速率较大的站点主要分布在山东中部和西南部地区;近52 a 间,1997 年以前为平均年太阳总辐射值的偏大时期,而其后则为偏小时期。

The Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Global Solar Radiation in Shandong Province

In this study, the determination of the Angstrom coefficients of a, and b was conducted with the measured global solar radiation datasets from the stations of Jinan, Yantai, and Juxian. Then, the Angstrom formula was used to estimate global solar radiation based on daily sunshine duration data at 17 meteorological stations in Shandong Province during the period 1961- 2012. The spatial distribution of annual and seasonal total global solar radiation was derived with the spatial interpolation method. The temporal trend and abrupt change of annual and seasonal total global solar radiation were detected with the methods of linear regression and Pettitt test, respectively. The results show that the annual global solar radiation averaged over 1961- 2012 were ranged from 4814.3-5338.8 MJ/m². The spatial distribution of mean annual global solar radiation over 1961-2012 was generally high in the north, but low in the south of Shandong Province. The time series of annual and summer season global solar radiation showed decreasing trends during the past 52 years. Except for Weihai station, all other stations exhibited significant decreasing trend at least 95% confidence level. Significant decreasing trends were detected at most stations in summer and winter, whereas only 3 and 1 stations showed increasing trend in spring and autumn, respectively. Significant trends were observed at 23.5%, 64.7% and 76.5% stations in spring, autumn, and winter, respectively. The stations located in the middle and southwest of Shandong Province were exhibited more faster decreasing rate compared with the other stations located in the north and peninsula of Shandong Province. During the past 52 years, a period with high value of annual global solar radiation and a period with low value were detected. Significant downward shift in the annual time series of global solar radiation was detected at all of the 17 meteorological stations. Significant downward shifts were detected at 6, 15, 14 and 11 stations in the spring, summer, autumn and winter time series.