中国产业部门水足迹演变及其影响因素分析

水资源是中国实现绿色可持续发展的基础,基于投入产出分析法对中国产业部门水足迹及其强度进行定量核算,分析其演变趋势,从技术进步、经济发展及政策完善三个角度剖析中国水足迹变迁的影响因素。结果表明:1997-2007 年间中国各行业完全水足迹强度的年均下降率约为9.1%,而大部分行业的水足迹却呈增长趋势,年均增长率约为14.2%。1997、2002、2007 年中国以贸易形势输出的虚拟水总量占完全水足迹量的比例分别为12.0%、14.6%、22.5%,呈递增趋势且均高于输入总量。中国各部门水足迹强度降低的主要影响因素包括:节水技术的发展、节水管理政策的完善、产业间的经济联系。中国经济飞速发展是导致水足迹上升的决定性因素。在进出口贸易方面,中国不合理的贸易结构和贸易总量的扩大化是导致虚拟水呈现输出状态的主要影响因素。最后提出:探寻节水技术的新方向,利用部门间经济联系转移部分行业节水压力,完善发展中产业的节水措施,调整进出口产业结构,实施地区性虚拟水贸易战略是中国节水政策的优先发展方向。

Temporal Variability and Influencing Factors of Sectoral Water Footprint in China

Water is scarce in China. Although the total water amount is 23256.7 × 108 m³ in 2011, yet along with the increasing population, the per capita water resource is only 2093 m³. The low level of the water quantity would restrict the development of economy and society. The green and sustainable development means a new area to combine green economic with sustainable development. Therefore the water resource is the foundation of the Green and Sustainable development in China. This article studied the changes in China water footprint and its intensity during 1997-2007. Through the changes we analyzed the driving factors, and put forward some forecast for the water saving policy. This research was based on an economic method, Input-Output analysis method. The results show that: the total water footprint intensity declined by 9.1% (average annual rate of descent). However, the total water footprint was increased; the average annual growth rate is 14.2%. The proportion of total output virtual water footprint to the total water footprint was 12.0%, 14.6% and 22.5% in China in 1997, 2002 and 2007, higher than the total input. There are three factors made the total water footprint intensity declined, i.e., the development of water-saving technology, the implementation of water-saving policies and the trade links among industries. However the greatly improved economy, affected by macro-control policies, makes the water footprint increase. Combined with the total water footprint intensity, the results show that it is the unreasonable trading structure and expansive trading scale that lead to the water export in China and brings negative effects on water saving. Finally, there are five prior ways to establish new water saving policies: Explore the new way for the water saving technology (such as improving the prolificacy of water per consumption); resolve the difficult water saving problem by the sectoral connection and trading links; complete the water saving measures of developing sectors; adjust the import-export trading structure and implement the virtual water strategy at regional level.