基于PSR与DCE综合模型的水资源短缺程度及变化趋势分析——以北京市为例

开展水资源的短缺程度及变化趋势研究是实施最严格水资源管理的基础支撑。以PSR和DCE综合模型为研究工具,构建了水资源短缺程度及变化趋势动态评价模型,并对北京市各行政区2003—2010年水资源短缺程度及变化趋势开展应用分析。研究结果表明,北京市的水资源短缺程度呈先加重再减缓又加重的波动变化,除市辖区、昌平区、密云县、延庆县的变化幅度较为明显,大多数行政区水资源短缺程度变化并不剧烈;房山区、顺义区、昌平区、怀柔区、平谷区、延庆县在2003—2010年水资源短缺程度变化速度综合情况为正值,即短缺程度呈现加重趋势;市辖区、通州区、大兴区、密云县在2003—2010年水资源短缺程度变化速度综合情况为负值,即水资源短缺程度呈现减轻趋势。

Water Shortage and Its Trend Analysis in Beijing Based on PSR and DCE Model

The water resources in China are limited in terms of capacity, supply and demand. How to address the problem of development, utilization, protection and management of water resources has become an important research area. To ensure the rigorous management of water resources and facilitate the pressure of water resources utilization, it is necessary to investigate the status of water resources shortage. However, there is a lack of study on the trend and changing speed of water resources shortage during the dynamic evaluation. To address this knowledge gap, this paper proposes a model of dynamic evaluation of water resources shortage based on the theory of acceleration for analyzing the trend and changing speed of water resources shortage. This paper concerns the issue of water shortage in Beijing from 2003 to 2010 based on PSR and DCE model. The results show a fluctuant change of water shortage degree in Beijing. The water shortage degree in Beijing firstly increased then after a decline it increased again. This change is not severe in most administrative districts except four districts (the district under city administration, Changping District, Miyun County and Yanqing County). The water shortage shows aggravating tendency in six administrative districts including Fangshan District, Shunyi District, Changping District, Huairou Pinggu District and Yanqing County, while shows alleviated tendency in four districts including the district under city administration, Tongzhou District, Daxing District and Miyun County.