基于城市规模的地方政府土地财政行为差异研究

论文从城市规模的内涵出发,分析不同城市规模的地方政府土地财政行为差异。在已有研究的基础上,论文提出了城市用地规模扩张效应、城市人口集聚效应、城市产业规模及其结构调整效应3个理论假说,以解释不同城市规模的地方政府土地财政行为差异;并通过243个地级市11 a的面板数据进行模型实证分析,检验并证实了3个理论假说。研究发现,不同规模的城市的土地财政行为背后有着不同的驱动力：1）中小城市的城市用地规模扩张对土地财政有明显的驱动;2）所有规模级别的城市的人口集聚效应对土地财政都有显著的影响,且呈现出“U”型特征;3）大城市与中小城市的第二产业规模对土地财政驱动方向不同,特大城市、中小城市第三产业规模对土地财政有正向驱动。因此,针对不同规模城市的土地财政问题及其治理,应该从土地政策、人口与户籍政策以及产业政策等方面给出差别化的调控政策。

Differentiation of Local Government’s Land Fiscal Behavior on Basis of Urban Size

Based on the city size, this paper analyzed the difference in local government’s land fiscal behavior. On the basis of the existing research, the paper induced three main effects which might explain the government’s behavior on land finance. The three effects were urban expansion effect, urban population agglomeration effect, and urban industrial scale and structural adjustment effect. Correspondently, three theoretical hypotheses about the effects were proposed and tested. Using the panel data of 11 years which contain 243 prefecture-level cities, it empirically tested the fixed effect model, and the results showed that there were different driving forces for different size of cities behind their land fiscal behaviors. Firstly, the urban expansion effect had more powerful influence in small cities and medium-sized cities, comparing with big cities and the megacities. Secondly, the urban population gathering effect is effective in all city groups. The relationship between the population and land finance can be described by a U-shaped curve, which means the urban population gathering effect has an inflexion point. Comparing the inflexion point with the median, it could be found that the median was bigger than the inflexion point in medium-sized cities (73.71×10⁴>62.41×10⁴), big cities (147.07×10⁴>66.92×10⁴), and megacities (499.90×10⁴>384.24×10⁴). Only in the group of small cities, its inflexion point is bigger than the median (51.81×10⁴>42.74×10⁴). Thirdly, the urban industrial scale and structural adjustment effect were complex. Generally, the third industry would push land fiscal revenue in all except big cities, while the second industry would push land fiscal revenue only in big cities. The second industry would decrease land fiscal revenue in small cities and medium-sized cities. The industrial structural adjustment in small and medium cities would decrease land fiscal revenue, while it would promote land fiscal revenue growth in big cities. Therefore, different policies should be made for different cities according to the governance of land fiscal revenue. Special attention should be paid to the control policies, such as land policy, population policy, household registering policy, and industrial policy. For a small city, the policy should focus on decreasing the urban expansion effect and increasing the population agglomeration effect. For a medium-sized city, the policy should keep land supply structure in addition to controlling the land size. For big cities and megacities, the policy of governance should contain land policy and population policy, and keep a reasonable and orderly rate of the immigration.