西北少数民族地区人地关系演变动态仿真研究——以甘南州为例

文章立足于人地关系理论,利用系统动态模型方法,构建人地关系演变动态仿真模型,以甘南州为例,对西北少数民族地区人地系统演进规律进行仿真模拟研究,旨在描述该区人地关系演变过程中可能出现的情景,为该区协调人地关系走向可持续发展提供理论依据。模拟结果表明:甘南州人地关系处于失调状态,人地矛盾突出,表现出不可持续的态势。加快转变经济发展方式,降低经济增长对自然资源的依赖程度,可以有效延缓资源枯竭的速度,对人地系统向可持续发展演进具有积极的推动作用,是协调甘南州人地关系走向可持续发展的必然选择。加快技术进步和加大环保投资对协调甘南州人地关系具有显著的推进作用。严格控制人口数量,提高人口素质,才能有效协调人地关系。

A Study on Dynamic Simulation of Human-natural Relationship Evolution in Northwest Ethnic Minority: Case of Gannan

The paper built a dynamic simulation model of human-natural evolution by using dynamic model to have an empirical study on the law of human-natural system in Gannan based on the human-natural relationship, which described the potential situation of the evolution of human-natural relationship in Gannan and provided a theoretical basis for coordinating the human-natural relationship to change direction to sustainable development. The results indicate that the human-natural relationship of Gannan was in the maladjusted state and the human-natural system presents an unsustainable evolutionary trend in the future,economic development can only be lasted about 35 years. From the evolvement of the human-natural relation, according to the conditions of Gannan area, some ideas of optimizing the human-natural relationship are put forward. Accelerating the transformation of economic development is the inevitable choice to coordinate the Gannan’s human-natural relationship to move towards the sustainable development, reduce the dependence of economic growth on natural resources and the pressures on the environment can effectively delay the speed of exhaustion of resources, which has the positive impetus function to the human-natural system moving towards the sustainable development. Speeding up technical progress and increased environmental protection investment has a significant role to the coordination of the Gannan’s human-natural relationship. Gannan’s efforts to develop the economy must be accompanied by equally vigorous efforts to control the population, and improve its quality, which ultimately to coordinate the human-natural relationship of Gannan.