气候变化对江苏省城市系统用电量变化趋势的影响

江苏省是长江流域经济发展领先的地区，在其社会经济快速发展、人民生活水平迅速提高和电力供应有限的情况下，气候变化加剧了电力需求的紧张局面。根据江苏省50年来的用电量资料和1985年以来夏季平均温度距平资料，分析了城市系统用电量在随社会经济发展增长的同时，因气候异常特别是因夏季高温波动而引起的居民和城市系统用电量的变化。结果发现，夏季高温异常是居民和城市系统用电量增加的重要气候因子，指出未来气候变暖可能导致电力需求更加严峻的形势。对于现阶段长江流域各地区电力工业和国民经济的可持续发展具有科学意义和参考价值。

INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION OF URBAN SYSTEM IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

Jiangsu Province is the leading area of economic development in the Yangtze Basin. In present circumstances its social economy develops fast, with the improvement in the living standard of the people and the limit of the electric power supply. Climate change has aggravated the tense situation of the electric demand. Based on the 50-year data of electric power consumption (EPC) in the province and the summer mean temperature anomalies since 1985, changes of residential EPC and urban system EPC caused by abnormal climate, especially the summer high temperature fluctuation have been analyzed. It is found that EPC increases with the development of social economy. Meanwhile, it is sensitive to the abnormal summer high temperature. Climate warming in the near future may cause a more severe situation for the development of Jiangsu electric power. This result has scientific meaning and reference value to sustainable development of power industry and economy in the Yangtze Basin at the present stage.