河南小麦生产农业气象灾害风险分析及区划

根据农业气象灾害风险分析理论，以河南省小麦生产为例，在辨识对小麦产量影响较大的农业气象灾害风险要素和风险源的基础上，通过构造灾度函数，运用EOF和概率等分析方法，分析了河南省小麦生产中的3种主要农业气象灾害——麦播旱涝、晚霜冻、干热风与青枯雨的发生规律及其对小麦产量的定量影响程度与风险概率。在此基础上，运用多因子综合风险指数模型，对河南省小麦生产农业气象灾害风险进行了综合区划，为农业气象灾害风险探讨了一条新的定量分析及区划技术体系。分析发现，干热风与青枯雨是影响河南省大部分地区小麦高产稳产的主要灾害，其次是晚霜冻危害，第三是麦播时旱涝灾害，但总体上河南省小麦生产的农业气象灾害风险并不算太高，只要采取一定的防御措施，不会在根本上影响小麦的高产稳产。

Analysis and zoning of agrometeorological disasters risk for wheat growing in Henan Province

Taking the wheat production in Henan Province as an example,the occurrence regulation,quantitative impact degree and risk probability of three main agrometeorological disasters,that is the drought& flood in seeding period,late freezing disaster,dry-hot-wind & immature death of wheat,which influenced severely the wheat yield,were analyzed by constructing risk degree functions and using EOF & probability analysis according to the risk analysis theory of agrometeorological disasters.The synthetic wheat risk zoning of agrometeorological disasters were conducted in Henan Province in terms of integrated multi-factors risk index model based on the upper analysis.The results showed that dry-hot-wind & immature death of wheat are the most severe agrometeorological disaster that influenced the high and stable yield of wheat in Henan Province,late freezing disaster is the second and the drought& flood in seeding period is the third disaster.However,the total risk degree of agrometeorological disasters for wheat production is not too high.