自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向

由于自然灾害系统的复杂性及数据资料的不完备性,人们不可能精确估计任何自然灾害发生的概率,"概率值估不准"是现有超越概率风险区划图的致命弱点.简要回顾了针对这一问题已进行的提高估计精度和进行模糊风险计算的有关研究,并将模糊风险研究引入风险区划图的编制,给出了自然灾害软风险区划图的定义和一个初步的样式.讨论了这种风险图在体现风险值估不准方面,以及在为用户提供更多风险信息,为决策者提供调整余地等方面的优点.研究结果表明,软风险区划图是自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向.为推进这一研究领域的发展,对今后的工作提出了一些建议.

Toward a new kind of natural disaster risk zoning map

Due to the complexity of natural disaster systems and the incompleteness of data, it is impossible to accurately estimate the probability of any natural disaster occurring. "Imprecision of probability estimation" is the fatal disadvantage of current risk maps based on the exceedance-probability. This paper briefly reviews the related researches on how to improve the imprecision of risk estimate and how to calculate fuzzy risks, leads the research on fuzzy risk into the field of risk zoning map, and suggests the definition of soft risk zoning map and a preliminary map mode. This paper discusses the advantages of soft risk zoning map. For example,the map is capable of representing the imprecision of risk values, providing more risk information for map-users and providing regulation options for policy-makers. The result of this research indicates that the soft risk zoning map is a potential direction of natural disaster risk zoning map. This paper gives some proposals to promote the future research.