中部地区新型城镇化与农业现代化耦合协调机制及优化路径

基于城乡统筹和区域协调发展的视角,构建了新型城镇化与农业现代化耦合协调发展评价指标体系,采用全局主成分分析、耦合协调度模型对2007—2017年中部地区两化的耦合协调机制及时空演化特征进行了系统研究。结果表明：（1）研究期间各省份新型城镇化与农业现代化以一定幅度的波动持续增长,但双向交互下的综合效益总体偏低,经济发展是驱动二者水平提升的主要动力;（2）中部地区新型城镇化与农业现代化表现为高度的耦合相关,2007—2017年两系统经历了“轻度失调—初级协调”的转变,耦合协调关系总体趋于不断优化,协调水平在空间格局上呈现“南高北低”的分异特征;（3）中部地区新型城镇化与农业现代化的耦合协调存在一定短板,相比之下新型城镇化的发展稍显滞后。2012年以来,在宏观政策的调控和引导下两系统发展的不平衡趋势逐步减弱,多数省份已先后实现不同协调等级的同步发展。掌握新型城镇化与农业现代化的耦合协调特征和时空演化趋势,对新时期中部地区崛起和现代化建设目标的实现有着积极的现实意义。

Coupling and coordination between new urbanization and agricultural modernization in Central China

Based on the perspective of urban-rural integration and regional coordinated development,a new evaluation index system for the coupling and development of urbanization and agricultural modernization was constructed.The coupling and coordination relationship between the two regions in the central region of China from 2007 to 2017 was analyzed by using the global principal component analysis and the coupling coordination degree model.The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics were systematically studied.The results show that:(1)During the research period,the new urbanization and agricultural modernization of the provinces continued to grow with a certain degree of fluctuation,but the overall benefits under the two-way interaction were generally low,and economic development was the main force driving the improvement of the two levels.(2)The new urbanization and agricultural modernization in the central region were highly coupled.In 2007-2017,the two systems experienced a transition from"mild imbalance-primary coordination".The coupling and coordination relationship tended to be continuously optimized,and the coordination level presented a spatial pattern of"high in the south and low in the north".(3)The coupling and coordination of new urbanization and agricultural modernization in the central region had some shortcomings.In contrast,the development of new urbanization was slightly lagging behind.Since 2012,under the regulation and guidance of macroeconomic policies,the imbalance of the development of the two systems has gradually weakened,and most provinces have successively achieved simultaneous development at different coordination levels.Mastering the coupling and coordination characteristics of new urbanization and agricultural modernization and the spatio-temporal evolution trend have positive and practical significance for the realization of the rise of the central region and the goal of modernization in the New Era.