产业结构调整对流域供需水平衡及水质改善的影响

基于系统动力学(SD)模型和水质(WQ)模型建立了描述深圳河流域社会、经济、水资源和水环境系统的耦合模型(SD-WQM).定量分析了三产比例调整、工业结构内部调整及产业技术提升对流域供需水平衡和水质改善的影响.结果表明,三产比例调整对流域水资源平衡有一定改善作用,但对流域水质变化不敏感;工业调整中劳动密集型产业的比重减少或技术提升、第三产业技术提升对流域的水资源平衡和水质改善作用明显.根据各措施的敏感性,设计了可以满足流域供需水平衡与水质要求的综合调整方案.

Modeling effects of regional industrial structure adjustment on water resource balance and water quality improvement

An integrated model (coupling system dynamics model with water quality model (SD-WQM)) was developed to describe the interactions among social development, economical development, water resource and water quality and apply to a catchment in Shenzhen river. The model was used to analyze the effects of adjustment of industrial structure of GDP and internal structure of secondary industry as well as industrial technology improvement on water resource balance and water quality improvement in the catchment. The adjustment of industrial structure of GDP might relieve water resource shortage but had little influence on water quality improvement. Decreasing the proportion of labor-intensive type in secondary industry, improving technology of labor-intensive type in secondary industry and that in tertiary industry had significant effect on water resource balance and water quality improvement. A comprehensive adjustment based on the results of sensitivity analysis was proposed and testified by SD-WQM simulation to satisfy the water resource balance and the requirement of water quality standard in Shenzhen river catchment.