Modelling municipal solid waste generation: a review

The objective of this paper is to review previously published models of municipal solid waste generation and to propose an implementation guideline which will provide a compromise between information gain and cost-efficient model development. The 45 modelling approaches identified in a systematic literature review aim at explaining or estimating the present or future waste generation using economic, socio-demographic or management-orientated data. A classification was developed in order to categorise these highly heterogeneous models according to the following criteria--the regional scale, the modelled waste streams, the hypothesised independent variables and the modelling method. A procedural practice guideline was derived from a discussion of the underlying models in order to propose beneficial design options concerning regional sampling (i.e., number and size of observed areas), waste stream definition and investigation, selection of independent variables and model validation procedures. The practical application of the findings was demonstrated with two case studies performed on different regional scales, i.e., on a household and on a city level. The findings of this review are finally summarised in the form of a relevance tree for methodology selection.