| 我国北方城市暴雨灾害演化过程及风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱伟,陈长坤,纪道溪,孙云凤.我国北方城市暴雨灾害演化过程及风险分析[J].灾害学,2011,26(3):88-91. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱伟 陈长坤 纪道溪 孙云凤 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京城市系统工程研究中心,北京,100089
2. 中南大学防灾科学与安全技术研究所,湖南,长沙,410075 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市自然科学基金重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出一种基于灾害演化网络的风险分析方法,针对城市暴雨灾害的演化过程进行了风险分析。利用复杂网络理论构建北方城市暴雨灾害演化网络模型,将危机事件分为三个等级,并探讨了事件级别和出入度的关系;分析城市暴雨灾害链演化特点和暴雨危机事件后果蔓延规律,得到关键危机事件和演化链。结果表明,交通堵塞是我国北方城市暴雨灾害系统中关键危机事件;暴雨灾害演化系统存在短链、长直链和循环链三种结构,其中循环链中的危机事件互为因果,可自行激化,是灾害演化网络控制的关键结构。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨灾害 危机事件 灾害演化网络 出入度 灾害链 北方城市 |
Analysis on the Risk and Evolution Process of Rainstorm Disaster in Cities of North China |
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| Zhu Wei,Chen Changkun,Ji Daoxi,Sun Yunfeng.Analysis on the Risk and Evolution Process of Rainstorm Disaster in Cities of North China[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2011,26(3):88-91. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Wei Chen Changkun Ji Daoxi Sun Yunfeng |
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| Institution: | Zhu Wei1,Chen Changkun2,Ji Daoxi2 and Sun Yunfeng2 (1.Beijing Research Center of Urban Systems Engineering,Beijing 100089,China,2.Disaster Prevention Science and Safety Technology Institute,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China) |
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| Abstract: | A risk analysis method based on disaster evolving network is put forward,and a risk analysis on evolution process of urban rainstorm disaster is conducted.By using complex network theory,the rainstorm disaster evolution network model is constructed,by which the rainstorm events are graded into three levels,and the relationship between levels and out-in degree of those events are discussed.Evolutionary characteristics of urban storm disaster chain and law of the consequences of the spread of storm crisis are... |
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| Keywords: | rainstorm disaster crisis events disaster evolution network out-in degree disaster chain cities of north China |
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