城市居民家庭用水规律模拟与分析

依据基于主体的社会学模拟原理,建立了城市居民家庭用水规律评估模型,可从技术、经济与社会层面对用水行为规律进行考察.基于北京的统计与调研数据,利用不确定性分析手段对该模型进行了参数识别与检验.结果表明,城市居民家庭生活用水结构正在从以水龙头、洗衣机用水为主的结构向以淋浴、冲厕用水为主的结构转变;水龙头和淋浴器能以较小的投资获得较大幅度的用水效率改善;水价的提高对自来水需求产生抑制作用,并刺激再生水的需求;人们在购买节水器具时采用非理性原则;在当前北京市水价条件下,仅有约40%的消费者愿意采用再生水.

Simulation and analysis on mechanisms of urban households water use

According to theory of agent based social simulation, an evaluation model of the water use mechanism of urban households was established. From the technical economic and social sides, the water use behavior mechanism was investigated. Based on the statistical and survey data of Beijing, the parameter distinguishing and the test of the model was carried out by utilizing uncertainty analysis. The main structure of urban household water usage was in the process changing from water tap and washing machine towards shower bath and toilet washing. The water tap and washing machine could use smaller investment to obtain improvement of water use efficiency of larger range; the enhancement of water price could produce restraining action on tap water demand and also stimulate the demand of reused water. People adopted irrational principle when purchasing water conservation devices under the condition of water price in Beijing at present, only about 40% consumers would like to adopt reused water.