农户规模经营意愿与行为的影响机制及差异——基于山东省3县379份农户调查问卷的实证

基于社会认知理论与计划行为理论构建分析框架,采用山东省五莲、东平和垦利等三县（区）的379份农户调查问卷数据,综合运用主成分分析法、Heckman二阶段模型和比较分析法,探究农户规模经营意愿与行为的主要影响因素及其作用机制与差异,为推进农地适度规模经营提供决策参考。结果表明：（1）案例区被调查农户对土地政策的认知程度普遍较低,且认知水平与结构均存在地域差异。（2）个体特征、资源禀赋和区位因素对规模经营意愿产生显著影响,而政策认知和社会保障因素的影响却不显著;所选四类因素均表现出了对规模经营行为的影响,其中影响力度较大且通过显著性检验的因素主要是“是否参加农业保险”和“新型经营主体认知程度”。（3）27.70%的受访农户存在规模经营意愿与行为不一致的情形,山区与平原农户规模经营的影响机制表现出一定差异,影响农户意愿与行为的因素也有较大不同。（4）建议深入了解农民的政策认知水平与结构、有针对性地加强宣传教育,因地制宜构建信息平台、降低农地流转交易成本,构建面向小农户的农业社会化服务体系,实现“土地+服务”的二元规模化。

Influencing mechanism of the willingness and behavior of farmland scale management: Evidence from Shandong province,China

Based on the framework of social cognition theory and planned behavior theory, the principal component analysis method, Heckman two-stage model, and comparative analysis method were adopted using 379 farmer survey questionnaires from three counties (districts) of Wulian, Dongping, and Kenli in Shandong province. The purpose is to explore the main influencing factors, mechanism and difference of farmers' scale management willingness and behavior, and to provide decision-making reference for promoting the moderate farmland scale management. The results showed that: (1) The degree of cognition of land policy by farmers interviewed is generally low in the case study areas, and there are regional differences in the level and structure of cognition. (2) The individual characteristics, resource endowment and location factors all have significant effects on the scale management willingness, while the influences of policy cognition and social security are not significant. The individual characteristics, resource endowment, policy cognition, social security and location factors all have influence on scale management behavior. Among them, the factors that have greater effects and pass the significance test are whether to participate in agricultural insurance and the cognition degree of new business entities. (3) Some 27.70% of the farmers interviewed have inconsistency between scale management willingness and behaviors. There are some differences in the scale management influencing mechanism between mountain and plain farmers, and there are many differences in the factors affecting the farmers' willingness and behavior. (4) It is necessary to thoroughly understand the level and structure of farmers' policy cognition, strengthen publicity and education in a targeted way, build information platforms according to local conditions, reduce transaction costs for the transfer of agricultural land, and build an agricultural socialized service system for small farmers to realize the dual scale of "land + service".