基于多准则决策的长江经济带国土空间脆弱性与恢复力研究

科学评估国土空间脆弱性与恢复力并解释其时空分布特征,能为国土空间开发与保护相关决策提供参考。采用综合指数法和有序加权平均（Ordered Weighted Averaging, OWA）法分别评价和模拟长江经济带市域国土空间脆弱性及国土空间恢复力,并对二者的组合情况进行综合分析。结果表明：（1）2008-2017年间长江经济带国土空间脆弱性指数有明显下降趋势,累计下降率为16.49%,脆弱性指数从西向东逐步下降;（2）长江经济带“生态优先型”“维持现状型”“开发优先型”政策情景下国土空间恢复力分别处于较高（占47.22%）、中等（占35.19%）、低恢复力（占99.07%）水平;（3）长江经济带国土空间以低脆弱性-中等恢复力、低脆弱性-较低恢复力为主导,占30.63%,国土空间整体脆弱性低,恢复力处于较低至中等水平。

Research on the spatial vulnerability and resilience of land in the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on multi-criteria decision

Scientific assessment of spatial vulnerability and resilience and analysis of its spatio-temporal distribution characteristics can provide reference for the decision-making of land spatial development and protection. The comprehensive index assessment method and the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) method are used to evaluate land spatial vulnerability and to simulate the land spatial resilience at the municipal scale in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, respectively. The comprehensive analysis is used to examine the combination characteristics of land saptial vulnerability and resilience. The results showed that: (1) The spatial vulnerability index of land in the study area has a significant downward trend, and the cumulative decline rate is 16.49% from 2008 to 2017. And the spatial vulnerability index gradually decreases from west to east. (2) Under the policy scenarios of "ecological priority", "maintenance status" and "development priority", the spatial resilience of the region is in the higher degree (47.22%), medium degree (35.19%) and low degree (99.07%), respectively. (3) The land in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is dominated by the types of low vulnerability-moderate resilience and low vulnerability-low resilience, accounting for 30.63% of the total land area. The overall vulnerability of land is low, and its resilience is at a low to medium level.