基于复杂网络的全球稻米贸易格局演化及其启示

运用复杂网络分析方法,采用2000—2016年国际贸易关系数据构建了全球稻米贸易网络,分析了全球稻米网络格局演化特征及中国在全球稻米贸易格局中的角色变化。研究发现：（1）2000—2016年全球稻米贸易网络规模不断扩大、相互依赖性加深,网络结构的异质性特征明显,核心节点对网络稳定性有控制作用;（2）印度、泰国、中国、越南、巴基斯坦、美国是网络核心节点,东南亚、南亚、东亚地区保持着全球稻米贸易核心区地位;（3）全球稻米贸易网络划分为六个主要组团,地理临近是组团格局形成的重要因素,组团内部呈现出口国主导、进口国跟随的特征;（4）中国作为全球最大的稻米进口国家,进口来源相对稳定。建议今后我国继续挖掘全球稻米贸易潜力,充分发挥贸易网络的优势,在风险可控前提下,增加进口、优化出口,提高贸易网络的复杂性,从而提升安全保障能力。

Implications from pattern and evolution of global rice trade: A complex network analysis

Based on the complex network theory and trade data from 2000 to 2016, a global rice trade network was constructed. This study quantitatively analysed pattern and evolution of the network and the role of China in global rice trade. The results show that the scale of network expanded and interdependence between nodes increased during the research period. The complexity and heterogeneity of the global rice trade network are obvious. Core nodes play leading roles in the stability of the network. The characteristics of importing countries are dispersed and volatile while those of exporting countries are centralized and stable. The global rice trade network in 2016 can be divided into six main communities. The largest one is led by India. Communities are often dominated by exporting countries and followed by importing countries inside. Geographical proximity is the most critical factor in the formation of community pattern. Trade choices of the demanding countries are becoming more important in the evolution of community structure. India, Thailand, China, Vietnam, Pakistan and USA are core nodes in the network. Southeast Asia, South Asia and East Asia are likely to maintain leading status of global rice production and trade. The importance of West Asia and Africa may further increase. As it is the largest rice importer in the world, the influence of China in the network is growing. But the import sources of China are over concentrated. It is suggested that we should continue to tap potential of global rice trade and take advantages of trade networks. In the premise of risks controllable, we can increase imports while optimizing exports and enhancing the complexity of our trade networks so as to improve the level of domestic food security.