城市开发强度与资源环境承载力协调分析——以珠三角为例

党的十八大以来,习近平总书记提出要加快构建生态文明体系,协调生态环境保护与城市开发,积极开展国土空间规划与生态修复工作。广东省新一轮生态文明建设规划提出,要根据地区资源环境承载能力,把环境损害、生态效益等指标纳入发展综合评价体系,打造珠三角绿色生态城市群。通过构建城市开发强度及资源环境承载力指标体系,选取珠三角九市作为研究对象,运用耦合协调模型量化可持续发展水平并揭示各子系统的相互作用,制定能增强承载能力的有效路径。结果表明：（1）研究区城市开发强度对比明显,都市圈特征日益显著。其中,深圳（0.9224）开发程度最强,肇庆（0.0548）程度最弱。（2）资源环境承载力按驱动因子分为自然拉动型及经济拉动型,分别通过自然优势和社会经济投入巩固综合承载力。（3）区域内过半城市生态经济系统濒临失调。受经济因素驱动,广州、深圳协调程度相对较高。（4）应对区域内三种不同的协调发展状态,为各类城市制定因地制宜的生态修复方案。

Empirical study on the coupling coordination between development intensity and resources-and-environment carrying capacity of core cities in Pearl River Delta

In the Report uring the 18^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012, President Xi Jinping proposed that we should speed up the construction of an ecological civilization system and resolutely fight the battle against pollution, which is presented in the new round of ecological civilization construction work in Guangdong Province. According to the carrying capacity of regional resources and environment, we should incorporate environmental damage, ecological benefits and other indicators into the comprehensive evaluation system of development, and build a green ecological urban agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta. In this paper, through the construction of development intensity and bearing capacity index system, nine cities in the Pearl River Delta were selected as the research object, and the coupling coordination model was used to quantify the level of sustainable development, and the role of each subsystem was revealed through driving force analysis. The results show that: (1) The contrast of regional development intensity is obvious, and the characteristics of metropolitan area are becoming increasingly prominent. Among them, Shenzhen has the strongest degree of development and Zhaoqing was the weakest; (2) According to the driving factors, the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the region can be divided into natural pulled type and economic pulled type. The comprehensive carrying capacity can be consolidated through natural advantages and socio-economic input, respectively; (3) More than half of the urban eco-economic systems in the region are on the verge of being out of tune. Driven by economic factors, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are relatively more coordinated; (4) We should cope with three coordinated development states in the region, and formulate ecological restoration plans for local cities.