能源富集区市域经济发展水平空间格局演变——基于晋陕蒙甘宁地区

采用熵权TOPSIS法对我国晋陕蒙甘宁这一典型能源富集区各地级以上城市的市域经济发展水平进行综合评价,进而使用马尔可夫转移概率分析方法和ESDA空间分析方法,探索该地区市域经济发展水平时空分异格局的演化特征,结果显示：（1）该地区的市域经济发展差距在波动中下降;（2）各等级城市在不同时期演化规律截然相反,随时间推移,除低等级之外的各等级城市均表现出较高的等级下降风险;（3）该地区城市的市域经济水平曾存在一定空间负相关,到2015年这种关系则不再显著;（4）该地区呈现以局部为核心区的格局,但西部地区明显趋冷;（5）市域经济系统整体处于耦合协调度较低的状态,发展不平衡、不协调的问题较突出。

Spatial pattern evolution of municipal economic development in energy-rich areas: A case study of Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia-Gansu-Ningxia region

This paper uses the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method to comprehensively evaluate the municipal economic development of prefecture-level cities in the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia-Gansu-Ningxia (SSIGN) region. Then, it explores the spatio-temporal differentiation of economic development of the region using Markov transition probability analysis method and ESDA spatial analysis method. The results show that: (1) From 2005 to 2015, the gap in municipal economic development between cities in the SSIGN region was narrowed in the fluctuations, indicating that the municipal economic of the study region had not developed towards polarization, and there was a certain foundation for achieving coordinated development. (2) Each economic development grade city presented a diametrically opposite evolution law in different periods. Over time, all besides the lowest-grade cities had a higher risk of grade decline. This result indicates that for cities with higher municipal economic level, effective measures shoud be taken to improve their economic development sustainability. (3) From 2005 to 2010, to a certain degree, there was a significant spatial negative correlation between the economic levels of the cities in the SSIGN region. A positive interaction needs to be formed in this region. By 2015, this relationship was no longer significant. This result indicates that the municipal economic development of the region has improved in the direction of positive integration, but we still need to be alert to the problems of excessive homogenization and lack of effective interaction that have occurred in the historical development of this region. (4) The regional economic development of the SSIGN region has gradually emerged in the spatial pattern of the Golden Triangle consisting of Xi'an, Hohhot and Taiyuan. However, there has also been a clear cold spot in the study region. (5) The municipal economic development system in the cities of this region is generally in a state of low coupling coordination, and unbalanced economic development and uncoordinated are prominent. This result actually points out the key issue affecting the overall coordinated development of the region's economy. That is, the economic development subsystems within the city should also be a balanced system and coordinated development should be achieved among these subsystems.