美国对外农业投资格局演变及其影响因素——兼论“一带一路”农业合作

对外农业投资是“一带一路”倡议的重要内容,研究美国对外农业投资特征,既可总结先行之国的发展经验,也可响应并适应主要竞争对手的投资行为,为充分利用两个市场、两种资源提供科学依据。本文立足对外直接投资理论,采用Logistic模型与面板数据分析方法,研究了2000-2018年美国对外农业投资的时空格局、影响因素及其对“一带一路”农业合作的启示。结果表明:（1）美国对外农业投资以食品加工等产前产后环节为主,主要分布于西欧等发达国家以及墨西哥、巴西等地理临近的发展中国家。（2）美国对外农业投资呈现显著的市场导向特征,同时也受到地理与文化距离、国家治理等东道国因素的影响。（3）对比中美对外农业投资特征,结合当前国际经贸形势与中国农业国际合作目标,建议中国进一步优化农业产业链布局,在促进实现联合国可持续发展目标的同时,提高中国在全球粮安领域的定价权与渠道把控力;进一步深耕既有对外农业投资市场,在降低地缘竞争压力的同时,充分挖掘潜在市场机会;关注“一带一路”沿线国家的农业技术需求,保证投资目标与东道国的投资需求相协调;尤需解决中国对外农业投资面临的文化与体制差异较大等现实问题,提高“一带一路”农业合作项目的可持续性。

Evolution pattern of USA's overseas investment in agriculture and its influencing factors: Concurrent discussion on agricultural cooperation in the Belt and Road region

Overseas investment in agriculture is an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The research on the characteristics of USA's overseas investment in agriculture can provide scientific basis for a better use of domestic and international markets and resources, not only for drawing on USA's development experience, but also for responding and adapting to the investment behavior of major competitors. Based on the Outward Foreign Direct Investment theory, this paper adopts the logistic model and panel data analysis method to study the spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors of USA's overseas investment in agriculture from 2000 to 2018, and discusses its policy implications for China's agricultural cooperation. The results show that: firstly, the USA's overseas investment in agriculture is mainly distributed on food processing and other pre- and post-production processes, mainly concerning developed countries such as Western European countries, as well as some neighbor developing countries such as Mexico and Brazil. Secondly, USA's overseas investment in agriculture showed a significant market orientation. In the meantime, it is also affected by geographical and cultural distance, national governance and other factors of the host country. Thirdly, in comparison of differences between China and the USA in characteristics of overseas investment in agriculture, considering the goal of China's international agricultural cooperation under the background of current international economic and trade situation, we suggested that China should further optimize the layout of agricultural industry chain, which will advance the implementation of sustainable development goals set by the United Nations and increase China's pricing power and channel control in the field of global food security. Furthermore we should explore the existing overseas agricultural investment market, reduce the geopolitical competition pressure and fully tap into potential market opportunities, focus on the agricultural technology demands of the BRI countries and region, and ensure that investment objectives are consistent with the investment demands of the host country. More importantly, it is necessary to solve practical problems faced with China's overseas investment in agriculture such as large cultural and institutional differences, which will improve the sustainability of agricultural cooperation projects under the BRI.