中国省际碳排放差异与碳减排目标实现——基于碳洛伦兹曲线的分析

通过1997—2009年中国各省份的能源消耗实物量来估算其CO2排放量,并运用收入不平等的度量工具——洛伦兹曲线、序列和基尼系数等来分析中国省际CO2排放差异,进而探讨跨省CO2排放均等化及中国减排目标的实现问题,以期为CO2减排政策制定和普通民众展示一种更直观、更易于接受的分析方法.研究发现,从1997年到2009年,有别于中国地区经济发展不平衡的状况,中国省际CO2排放基尼系数并未超过0.30,从1997年的0.273降为2009年的0.254,近几年基本保持在0.250左右,差异较小且趋于收敛;按照2009年价格计算,中国碳排放强度基本呈下降趋势,从1997年的2.12t.万元-1降为2009年的1.685t.万元-1;基于这些趋势,即使维持现状不变,中国政府的CO2减排承诺也基本可以兑现.

Inter-provincial discrepancy and abatement target achievement in carbon emissions: A study on carbon Lorenz curve

This paper estimates provincial carbon dioxide emissions in China based on their fossil fuels consumption. We analyze inter-provincial differences of carbon dioxide emissions using tools measuring income inequality, such as the Lorenz curve, the Parade and the Gini-index. We further study the equalization of inter-provincial carbon dioxide emissions and the achievement of abatement target in China. The paper provides a more visual and receptive tool for the policymakers and the general public. Our results reveal that the inter-provincial differences in carbon dioxide emissions are small relative to the uneven economic development levels. The average carbon intensity in China was basically declining from 1997 to 2009. It is envisioned that the abatement target promised by the Chinese government can be roughly fulfilled.