沿海地区台风灾害系统脆弱性过程诊断与评估以福建省为例——以福建省为例

基于自然灾害系统理论，分析了导致和影响台风灾害系统脆弱性过程的主要因素，并提出了脆弱性的诊断思路。通过分析，建立了台风灾害发生过程和灾害发生以后的脆弱性评估指标体系和评估模型，构建了台风灾害系统脆弱性综合指数模型，并以福建县域为单元，对福建省台风灾害系统脆弱性过程进行评价。研究表明，福建省台风灾害系统脆弱性呈上升趋势，空间上高值区集中分布在沿海地区，有从东部沿海向西部扩展的趋势。反映台风强度和福建人口、经济地区差异显著，建议应该制定区域综合减灾模式，逐步降低脆弱性，提高防御台风灾害能力。

Vulnerability Diagnosis and Assessment of Typhoon Disaster System at Coastal Regions, a Case Study of Fujian Province

Vulnerability of typhoon is the main factor in its disaster formation.Based on natural disaster system theory,the paper analyzes the factors influencing vulnerability's process,and suggests a method of vulnerability diagnosis.According to the analysis,indexes and model for vulnerability assessment during and after disaster are built up.Then comprehensive index model of typhoon's vulnerability is constructed,and vulnerability's process of Fujian's typhoon disaster system is assessed on county level.The result shows that vulnerability of Fujian's typhoon system is increasing,with high-value areas centralized in coastal regions,which moves westwards.There is a remarkable regional difference in typhoon's intensity,population and economy in Fujian.Therefore,the integrated model for regional disaster reduction should be established so that vulnerability could be reduced step by step and disaster prevention ability could be enhanced.