Scenario Development as a Basis for Formulating a Research Program on Future Agriculture: A Methodological Approach |
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Authors: | Ingrid Öborn Jan Bengtsson Fredrik Hedenus Lotta Rydhmer Maria Stenström Katarina Vrede Charles Westin Ulf Magnusson |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Crop Production Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Box 7043, Ulls v?g 16, 750 07, Uppsala, Sweden 2. World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), P.O. Box 30677-00100, UN Avenue, Nairobi, Kenya 3. Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7044, 750 07, Uppsala, Sweden 4. Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96, G?teborg, Sweden 5. Department of Animal Breeding and Genetics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7023, 750 07, Uppsala, Sweden 6. Defence Analysis, Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), 164 90, Stockholm, Sweden 7. Secretariat of the Cross-Party Committee on Environmental Objectives, Karlav?gen 100A, 103 33, Stockholm, Sweden 8. Department of Social Anthropology, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden 9. Department of Clinical Sciences, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7054, 750 07, Uppsala, Sweden
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Abstract: | To increase the awareness of society to the challenges of global food security, we developed five contrasting global and European scenarios for 2050 and used these to identify important issues for future agricultural research. Using a scenario development method known as morphological analysis, scenarios were constructed that took economic, political, technical, and environmental factors into account. With the scenarios as a starting point future challenges were discussed and research issues and questions were identified in an interactive process with stakeholders and researchers. Based on the outcome of this process, six socioeconomic and biophysical overarching challenges for future agricultural were formulated and related research issues identified. The outcome was compared with research priorities generated in five other research programs. In comparison, our research questions focus more on societal values and the role of consumers in influencing agricultural production, as well as on policy formulation and resolving conflicting goals, areas that are presently under-represented in agricultural research. The partly new and more interdisciplinary research priorities identified in Future Agriculture compared to other programs analyzed are likely a result of the methodological approach used, combining scenarios and interaction between stakeholders and researchers. |
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Keywords: | Food security Global challenges Research priorities Studies of future |
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