江苏省春季连阴雨和太平洋海温的响应关系研究

对太平洋海温和江苏省春季连阴雨进行相关普查,通过非线性最优化因子处理方法对太平洋海温因子进行变换,确定高相关区。结果表明:江苏春季连阴雨的发生与太平洋海温的变化显著相关,从相关区域的大小看,下半年各海区温度变化与江苏次年春季连阴雨的相互关系更为密切,苏南和江淮地区的显著性要优于淮北;而从海区的位置上看,淮北连阴雨的相关海区在冬春季主要集中在高纬地区,夏季在低纬地区;其它地区的相关海区则从春季开始由高纬度向低纬度地区过渡。通过t检验分析了ENSO现象对当年和次年的江苏省春季连阴雨发生的次数的影响,发现EI Nino事件对当年和次年的江苏春季连阴雨发生次数均呈正效应,La Nina事件对当年江苏春季连阴雨无显著影响,与次年的春季连阴雨呈负效应。

The Correlation between Sea Surface Temperature of the Pacific and Spring Continuous Rain in Jiangsu Province

The relationship between sea surface temperature of the Pacific and spring continuous rain in Jiangsu Province is studied using methods of linear and nonlinear optimal transformation. The analytical results shows that the correlation coefficient was notable between them. The variation of sea temperature in every sea area in the second half year corresponds closely to the spring continuous rain of JiangSu next year from the size of correlation area,and the character of SuNan and JiangHuai is better than that of HuaiBei. The correlated area of HuaiBei continuous rain is in high latitude in winter and spring ,and in low latitude in summer from the position of sea area. The correlated sea area of other districts changes from high latitude to low latitude starting from the spring. Then,the influence of ENSO on the frequency of spring continuous rain of the same year and next year in JiangSu was analysed using the T-test, and it is found that the frequency of spring continuous rain of the same year and next year in JiangSu are positive correlation with El Nino. As for La Nina, the frequency of spring continuous rain of next year in JiangSu is negative correlation, and no influence of the same year.