太湖流域城市化水平及外来人口影响测评

太湖流域属于我国东部沿海经济较发达的地区，2000年城市化水平达到66.17%，接近全国平均水平的两倍。自改革开放以来，该地区工业化发展迅速，由以乡镇企业为主过渡到外资和民营企业的大力发展，吸引了来自全国各地的就业迁移人口，成为全国流动人口的主要集中区。同时使得外来人口成为地区社会经济发展规划不可忽视的重要因素。以第五次人口普查资料为基础分析了太湖流域外来人口来源的地域和城乡构成，计算了外来人口数量及分布情况，指出外来人口的城乡非均衡分布促成地区城镇化率的小幅上升，太湖流域各地区的上升幅度在2%左右，部分解释了隐性城镇化率的产生。在城市市区，外来人口平均占到总城市人口的18%。对于50万人口以上城市，外来人口比重与城市规模表现出良好的相关性，可用于指导城市人口规模及地区城镇化水平预测。

LEVEL OF URBANIZATION AND ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF IMMIGRATORY POPULATION IN THE TAIHU WATERSHED

The Taihu Watershed belongs to the east-coastal developed area in China. In 2000 the level of urbanization was 66.17%, near twice of the average urbanization level in China. Since the open-door policy the region has been proceeding with rapid industrialization, from the countryside industry develop to the foreign investment industry. The affluent job opportunities in these new factories have attracted a huge immigratory population from all over the country. Hence immigration becomes an important element affecting regional development plan. With the data provided by the fifth population census this paper analyzed the regional composition and urban-rural composition of immigration, calculated the number of immigration and its distribution by cities (counties) in the Taihu Watershed. The immigration contributed to around two percent of the level of urbanization due to its unbalanced distribution between the rural and urban areas. For the total city population, immigration occupied about 18% on average. The proportion of immigration was significantly linearly correlated with city population size in cities with over 500 000 population, and the proportion was significantly correlated with GDP in cities with less 500 000 population. The results should be useful for the prediction of urban population size of the cities and for the prediction of regional urbanization level in the Taihu Watershed, and could provide references for other cities or regions with the similar social and economic situation.