区域农业水分供应脆弱性分析及定量损失评估

采用积分湿度指数方法,建立了区域农业水分供应脆弱性分析模型,并以山东省为案例进行了应用研究,结果表明:无论春、夏、秋季还是年平均的积分湿度指数值,均呈从东南到西北递减的趋势,说明自然降水对农业需水的满足程度沿该方向递减。对山东省而言,农业用水的满足程度在季节上也存在较大的差异,夏季降水在农业满足程度方面最高、秋季次之、春季最差。由于气候因子的年变异较大,积分湿度指数的年变异亦大;根据作物产量的形成为一动态过程,作物整个生育期内的每一个生长阶段都对其最终产量有一定的贡献,利用积分回归模式对作物全生育期中每一旬降水因子与产量的定量关系进行模拟分析,得到了主要农作物全生育期内每旬降水对最终产量的贡献系数。根据每旬降水对产量的贡献系数和作物受旱指标,建立了作物旱灾损失评估模型。

Frangibility analysis of water supply in regional agriculture and assessment of its quantitative loss

By using the method of integral humidity index,the ability of water supply for agriculture in spring,summer,autumn and all the year in Shandong Province is analyzed.The results show that integral humidity indices have a trend that it is descending from southeast to northwest in any season, and there is a same trend in the degress of natural precipitation for agriculture needs.The differences of water supply degress in agriculture needs are obvious among seasons.Supply degrees of summer precipitation for agriculture is the highest,and the lowest is in spring.Annual variances of the integral humidity index are notable due to the annual variance of climate factor;This paper analysed the relation between rainfall and main crops yield in Shandong.The dynamic quantitative contribution of rainfall to crops yield are obtained.Thus,direct economic effects of drought on crops can be assessed.