地震损失的预测方法

地震损失预测是一项涉及多种学科的综合性分析。本文给出一种分析方法,可用来确定当城市遭遇一定地震烈度时的可能损失和年平均损失期望值。文中叙述了建筑结构、生命线工程等各类损失预测方法,以及由此引起的间接损失问题,并给出估算人员伤亡的经验公式。最后,用本文方法预测安阳市在遭遇Ⅷ-Ⅸ度地震影响时的经济损失和人员伤亡数,为编制安阳市抗震防灾规划提供了依据。

A PREDICTION METHOD FOR EARTHQUAKE LOSS

Earthquake loss prediction is a comprehensive analysis of multi-sub- jects.This paper provides a practical method which can determine the potential losses and their annual average expectancy for a city when it is hit by a destructive earthquake.Loss prediction method for building struc- tures and lifeline engineering structures etc.and the hence indirect loss problems are discussed.An empirical formula for evaluating fatalities is also considered.A study in Anyang city shows losses of economic activity and human casualties under earthquakes of intensity 7,8 and 9,for which the city's anti-earthquake and disaster mitigation project has been prepared.