印度大地震的可预警信息研究

20 0 1 0 1 2 6印度西北部的普杰地区发生了 7 8级强烈地震。对这次强震事件 ,利用卫星遥感监测地气系统射出长波辐射的数值产品资料 ,分析了以普杰为中心整个西亚范围内 ,事件发生前后共计 6个月的月平均辐射场的分布特征及其演变过程。发现自震前 2个月至震时当月 ,普杰地区始终是一个辐射 (热 )场的高值中心 ,震后明显消散。据此认为印度大地震有可识别的预警信息 ,提出利用卫星遥感技术及其产品 ,有可能为“突破”短临地震预报开拓出一种新的预测技术生长点

A study on the recognizable warning information of the great Indian earthquake

A strong earthquake of magnitude 7 8 occurred in Bhuj area in the northwestern part of India on Jan 26, 2001 An analysis was made on the characteristics of the spacial distribution of the monthly average field of the outgoing longwave radiation and its evolution process in the whole western Asia area centered at Bhuj in a 6 month long period including the occurrence of the event In the analysis the digital product data of the outgoing longwave radiation of the earth atmosphere system monitored by satellite remote sensing technique were used It is found that the Bhuj area was constantly a high value center of the radiation(thermal) field during the period beginning two months prior to the event and ended in the month of the occurrence of the quake The center disappeared obviously after the quake Thus, it is concluded that recognizable warning information had existed before the great Indian earthquake It is suggested that using the satellite remote sensing technique and its products a new growing point for forecasting technique might possibly be opened up for the "breakthrough" of the short term and imminent earthquake prediction