区域差异下农业用水效率对农业用水量的影响

基于全国30个省份1998~2015年面板数据,采用Super-SBM模型测算农业用水效率,并在观察农业用水量、农业用水效率动静态演进特征的基础上,利用门槛面板回归模型探究农业用水效率对农业用水量的影响。结果表明,全国农业用水量和农业用水效率均呈阶段性下降。农业用水效率对降低农业用水量具有显著的门槛效应,提高农业用水效率是降低农业用水量的有效途径;东部农业用水效率促进农业用水量下降,但须警惕"回弹效应";中部农业用水效率抑制农业用水量增长,且作用逐渐增强;西部农业用水效率提高能够快速降低农业用水量,但作用逐渐减弱。另外,提升农民受教育水平、增加绿水足迹、扩大农业劳动人口能够降低农业用水量,而丰富的水资源禀赋促进农业用水量增加。

INFLUENCE OF AGRICULTURAL WATER USE EFFICIENCY ON AGRICULTURALWATER CONSUMPTION IN CONSIDERATION OF REGIONAL DIFFERENCES

Employing panel data gathered from 1998-2015 in 30 provinces in China, adapting Super SBM model to calculate agricultural water efficiency and relying on the observations of the dynamic and static evolution of agricultural water consumption and agricultural water efficiency, this article attempts to determine the impact of agricultural water efficiency on agricultural water consumption utilizing threshold panel regression model. The findings illustrate the periodical decrease in both agricultural water efficiency and agricultural water consumption in China. An effective approach to increase efficiency in agricultural water is to reduce agricultural water consumption since agricultural water efficiency has a significant threshold effect on reducing agricultural water consumption. The decreased efficiency in agricultural water efficiency in eastern area promotes agricultural water′s downscale, but the effect of resilience should not be overlooked. The agricultural water efficiency in central China reduces the increase in agricultural water consumption with its strengthening effect. Increased agricultural water efficiency in western China can promptly reduce agricultural water consumption with its diminishing effect. Additionally, agricultural water consumption can be reduced by enhancing peasants′ educational level, by enabling more coverage of green lands and by enlarging agricultural laborers′ population while excellent water resources endowment can increase agricultural water consumption.