哈尔滨城市林业示范基地春季可燃物含水率动态研究

主要针对2011年冬季黑龙江省哈尔滨市地区降水过少而2012年春季极度干旱对森林可燃物含水率的影响进行研究。对在2011—2013年冬季反常气候影响下的黑龙江哈尔滨城市林业示范基地的樟子松、胡桃楸、白桦、蒙古栎林下可燃物含水率的动态变化进行了定点检测，并通过细致的分析发现随着气象条件的变化，不同森林可燃物含水率呈现出不同的变化趋势：樟子松林下可燃物含水率相比之下一直很高，胡桃楸林下可燃物含水率一直非常稳定，对环境条件的变化反映不太明显，而蒙古栎林下可燃物则处于中间，白桦林下可燃物对气象因子的变化最为敏感，上下波动很大。根据监测获得的数据对不同森林可燃物含水率和气象因子的关系进行了多元线性回归分析，并在符合一定条件的前提下建立了相对应的含水率预测模型，由于数据较少等原因，所得模型准确性有待验证，但是这也为哈尔滨城市林业示范基地森林含水率的预测奠定了基础。

Dynamic Research on the Forest Foul Moister Content in Harbin Urban Forestry Demonstration Base in Spring

The studies mainly focus on the moister content of the forest foul in Harbin,Heilongjiang province where there were little precipitation in 2011 winter and serious drought in 2012 spring. We analyzed in details the forest foul moister content change of the Pinus sylvestris, Juglans mandshurica,white birch,Mongolian Oak in the Harbin urban Forestry Demonstration Base in 2011 -2013 abnormal winter by utilizing the simple fixed -point measurement method, the results indicate, different forest foul moister contents showed different reflections with the weather condition changes, the moister content in Pinus sylvestris kept high all the time to some extent, and the moister content in Juglans mandshurica was stable and did not vary with the environment changes, the moister content of Mongolian Oak was in the middle, whereas the moister content of white birch was the most sensitive to the meteorological factors and fluctuated greatly. The relationship between the forest foul moister content with the meteorological factors were analyzed with the mult -variable linear return analysis in accordance with the obtained data, the correspondent moister prediction model was constructed under effective conditions. The accuracy of the model were to detect for the limited data, but this model offered basis for the moister content prediction in the Harbin urban Forestry Demonstration Base.