基于演练决策文本分析的决策者分类及应急决策差异研究

为研究特大地震初期的高层决策行为，通过演练模拟决策者在可得灾情信息下进行决策部署的情形，采集参演决策者独立确认的最终决策文本为样本，对比分析样本对草案修改的方式和程度，将决策者分为独立型、合作型和依赖型。结构化处理提取样本的决策任务，分析与灾情信息及决策建议的相关性。结果表明:在高层决策者中合作型人数比例最高，群组内决策差异较小，质量相对稳定；独立型决策者偏好主观判断，对灾情的关注以及草案漏洞的审查等指标明显低于其他类型；依赖型决策者在使用合理化建议的前提下易做出高质量决策，但在决策支持失误而非漏洞的条件下，能否保证决策质量有待进一步验证。

Research on decision maker classification and emergency decision difference based on text analysis of exercise decision making

In order to study the high level decision making behavior in the early stage of great earthquake,a case of decision making deployment for the decision maker under the acquirable disaster information was simulated through the exercises.The final decision making texts independently confirmed by the decision makers participating in the exercises were collected as the samples,then the ways and degrees of draft modification by the samples were compared and analyzed,and the decision makers were divided into independent type,cooperative type and dependent type.The decision making tasks of samples were processed and extracted with structuralization,and the correlation between the disaster information and decision making suggestions was analyzed.The results showed that the proportion of cooperative decision makers was the highest in the high level decision makers,the difference of decision making within the group was small,and the quality was relatively stable.The independent decision makers preferred the subjective judgment,and the indexes such as the attention to the disaster situation and the review of draft loopholes were significantly lower than the other types.The dependent decision maker was easy to make high quality decision under the premise of using reasonable suggestions,but whether the decision making quality could be guaranteed under the condition of decision making support errors rather than loopholes remained to be further verified.