基于IIAHP-Entropy-ssd的采空区遗煤自燃危险性评价模型及应用

为了能够对煤矿采空区遗煤自燃危险性进行准确判定，提出基于IIAHP-Entropy-ssd最优综合赋权模糊评价模型。首先，结合影响采空区遗煤的自燃性及环境影响因素，建立危险性评价指标体系，并确定各评价指标的分级准则；其次，利用区间数代替数值评价打分，并运用可能度互补矩阵进行修正的改进区间数层次分析法（IIAHP），结合熵权法（Entropy），根据现场实测数据，得出各评价指标的主、客观权重，并运用离差平方和（ssd）的最大化思想进行最优综合赋权，克服评价过程中主、客观因素对评价结果的影响，运用属性数学理论，建立各评价指标的隶属函数；最后，运用该模型对忻州窑矿8914综放工作面采空区遗煤自燃危险性进行评价，并与现场实际情况进行对比，结果表明:该模型的评价结果与实际情况基本一致，验证了该评价模型的准确性，为采空区遗煤自燃危险性评价提供参考和借鉴思路。

Risk assessment model for spontaneous combustion of residual coal in goaf based on IIAHP-Entropy-ssd and its application

In order to accurately judge the risk of spontaneous combustion of the residual coal in the goaf of coal mine,a fuzzy assessment model based on the IIAHP Entropy ssd optimal comprehensive weighting was proposed.Firstly,combined with the factors affecting the spontaneous combustion of residual coal in the goaf and the environmental influencing factors,an index system of risk assessment was established,and the classification criteria of each evaluation index were determined.Secondly,the interval number was used instead of the numerical evaluation to score,and the possibility complementary matrix was applied to modify the improved interval analytic hierarchy process (IIAHP) method.Combined with the entropy weight method (Entropy),and according to the field measured data,the subjective and objective weights of each evaluation index were obtained,and the optimal comprehensive weighting was carried out by using the idea of maximizing the sum of squares of deviations (ssd),which overcame the influence of subjective and objective factors on the evaluation results in the evaluation process.The membership function of each evaluation index was established by using the theory of attribute mathematics.Finally,the model was used to evaluate the risk of spontaneous combustion of the residual coal in the goaf of 8914 fully mechanized top caving face in Xinzhouyao mine,and the results were compared with the field actual situation.It showed that the evaluation results of the model were basically consistent with the actual situation,which verified the accuracy of the evaluation model.The research provides a new idea for the risk assessment on spontaneous combustion of residual coal in the goaf.