基于DEMATEL/ISM的深水井喷风险影响因素研究*

为提高深水井喷事故风险管理水平，提出研究深水井喷风险影响因素的分析方法。从技术、人员、环境和管理4个方面，识别深水井喷事故风险致因因素，建立深水井喷事故风险评价指标体系；运用矩阵决策实验室分析法（DEMATEL），研究风险因素之间的相互影响关系，计算不同风险因素的中心度和原因度，确定关键风险因素；进一步基于解释结构模型（ISM）划分不同影响因素的层次结构，分析风险因素之间的综合影响关系，建立深水井喷事故风险影响因素模型。结果表明:层级1为近邻致因，可直接导致井喷事故的发生；层级2~7为过渡致因，在风险传递过程中起到桥梁作用，对井喷事故的直接影响较小；而层级8则为本质致因，重视本质致因的改善有利于从根源上降低井喷事故的风险。研究结果可为深水井喷事故风险的预防和控制提供理论依据。

Study on influencing factors of deepwater blowout risk based on DEMATEL/ISM

To improve the management level of deepwater blowout accident risk,an analysis method for the influencing factors of deepwater blowout risk was proposed and studied.The risk causation factors of deepwater blowout accident were identified from four aspects of technology,human,environment and management,and an index system for risk evaluation of deepwater blowout accident was established.The Decision making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method was used to study the interaction relationship among the risk factors,and the centrality and cause degree of different risk factors were calculated to determine the key risk factors.Furthermore,the hierarchical structure of different influencing factors was divided based on the Interpretive Structural Model (ISM),then the comprehensive influence relationship among the risk factors was analyzed,and an model for the influencing factors of deepwater blowout accident risk is established.The results showed that the level 1 were the near neighbour causation,which might lead to the blowout accident directly.The level 2,3,4,5,6,7 were the transitional causation,which played a bridge role in the risk transmission process and had little direct influence on the blowout accident.The level 8 were the essential causation,which could reduce the risk of blowout accidents fundamentally.The research can provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of deepwater blowout accident risk.