生态系统服务价值与人类活动强度关联性分析及权衡——以淇河流域为例

以淇河流域为研究对象，利用2000~2015年土地利用/覆被数据，结合当量因子法修正中国陆地不同生态系统服务价值当量表，采用双变量相关分析法和生态系统服务权衡模型分析生态系统服务权衡协同关系，引入人类活动强度指数评估模型分析人类活动影响空间特征，运用空间自相关探讨人类活动影响与生态系统服务价值的空间关联性及LISA聚类分析.结果表明：（1）2000~2015年淇河流域生态系统服务价值呈下降趋势，2010年生态系统服务最低（19.29亿元），废物处理平均价值最大（3.68亿元），娱乐文化平均价值最小（0.81亿元）；（2）从生态系统权衡协同关系来看，两种相关性分析均表明研究区生态系统服务以协同关系为主，由线性关系发现供给服务、调节服务与支持服务呈现为互为增益的协同关系，文化服务与支持服务、供给服务、调节服务分别表现为此消彼长的权衡关系，生态系统服务权衡协同度表明土壤保持和原材料及土壤保持和生物多样性协同度最高（4.4），权衡度最高（-5.2）为水源涵养和原材料、水源涵养和生物多样性；（3）淇河流域人类活动强度空间分异显著，流域下游人类活动影响强度明显高于上游地区，人类活动强度与生态系统服务价值空间相关性由正相关转向负相关.

The correlation between ecosystem service value and human activity intensity and its trade-offs-take Qihe River basin for example

Based on the land use/cover data in Qihe River basin from 2000 to 2015, we first amended ecosystem service value of different terrestrial ecosystems in China using the equivalent factor method. We also combined bivariate correlation analysis with Ecosystem Services Trade-off Degree Model to analyze trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services, and introduced human activity intensity index assessment model to analyze the spatial characteristics of human activity influences. Last, we used the spatial autocorrelation model and LISA cluster analysis to investigate the spatial relevance between human activity impact and ecosystem service value. The results indicated that:First, the value of ecosystem services in Qihe River basin was declining from 2000 to 2015. In 2010, the ecosystem service value was the lowest (1.929billion yuan), the average value of waste treatment was the highest (368million yuan), and the average value of entertainment culture was the lowest (81million yuan). Second, from the perspective of trade-off and synergy ecosystem, the two types of correlation analysis showed that the ecosystem services in the study area were dominated by synergistic relationship. Supply services, regulation services and support services were mutually beneficial synergies. However, cultural services and support services, supply services and regulation services were trade-off relationships. Ecosystem services trade-off degree showed that the synergy degree of soil conservation and raw materials, soil conservation and biodiversity were the highest (4.4), and the trade-off degree of water conservation and raw materials, water conservation and biodiversity were the highest (-5.2). Third, there were great spatial differences in human activity intensity in Qihe River basin, and the impact intensity of human activity in the downstream was significantly higher than that in the upper stream. The spatial correlation between human activity and ecosystem service value switched from positive to negative during the our research period (2000~2015).