中国碳交易试点政策对城市碳排放绩效的影响及机制

以2010~2016年中国273个地级市面板数据为样本，采用倾向得分匹配-双重差分方法（PSM-DID）检验了碳排放权交易政策对于城市碳排放强度的影响效果以及机制.研究发现：碳排放权交易政策对试点城市碳排放强度的降低具有显著而持续的推动作用，随着年份的推进，政策效果越发明显.此外，利用中介效应分析发现，通过调整产业结构和节能减排的途径可以有效降低城市的碳排放强度，而科研投入的影响尚不明确.基于此，本文建议应该进一步在全国范围推广碳排放权交易政策，优化产业结构，提高第三产业比重，推动企业节能减排并树立绿色低碳消费理念.

Impact of China's carbon emission trading policy on the performance of urban carbon emission and its mechanism

Based on panel data on 273 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2016, the propensity score matching-difference in difference method (PSM-DID) was wsed to investigate the effect of carbon emission trading policy on urban carbon emission intensity and its mechanism. The study found that such policies significantly and continuously lead to the reduction of carbon intensity in pilot cities, and the effect became more significant in recent years. Consequently, through the mediation effect analysis, this paper found that adjustment on the industrial structure and energy saving methods effectively reduced the carbon intensity while the impact of scientific research remained unclear. Based on the finding, this paper suggested further nationwide promotion on carbon emission trading policy, optimization of industrial structure, increase in tertiary industry proportion, promotion on enterprise energy saving, and establishment of a green low-carbon consumption concept.