中国乘用车塑料的动态物质流分析

结合行业信息并基于动态物质流模型，本文对1950~2050年间中国乘用车塑料流量与存量进行了历史测算与情景分析.历史测算表明：1950~2018年国内乘用车行业累计消耗了以聚丙烯（PP）、聚氨酯（PU）等为主的塑料3278万t，产生了337万t塑料废弃物；报废汽车拆解后的车用废塑料仅28%得到回收利用.针对未来情况，本文设计了乘用车保有量、单车塑料使用量两大关键因素下的不同情景组合.结果显示车用塑料存量及废塑料产生量将大幅增长，到2050年存量将达到0.7~2.7亿t，废塑料产生量将达到500~1600万t，汽车拆解和塑料再生等相关行业对此应充分关注.到2050年车用废塑料回收率若能提升至80%，将减少376万t/a的车用废塑料填埋或焚烧，显著减少环境风险.

Dynamic material flow analysis of Chinese passenger car plastics

In this study, China's passenger car plastic flows and stocks from 1950 to 2018 were accounted and scenario analysis until 2050 was also carried out by constructing a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model with the industry data. The accounting results showed that from 1950 to 2018, China's domestic passenger car industry consumed a total of 32.78million tons (Mton) of plastics, mainly including polypropylene (PP) and polyurethane (PU). The accumulative amount of plastic wastes reached 3.37 Mton. The recycling rate was only 28% for the plastic wastes generated at scrap car disassembly plants. Further, a set of scenarios were designed based on various combinations of two key factors, namely, passenger car ownership and plastic usage per passenger car. The scenario analysis results showed that the stock of automotive plastics and waste plastics would increase substantially. Across all the scenarios, the stock would reach 70~270 Mton by 2050, along with 5~16 Mton of waste plastics. These results could give references to the industries of automobile disassembly and plastic recycling. If the recycling rate of automotive waste plastics could reach 80% by 2050, 3.76 Mton waste plastics would be reduced annually, which would significantly mitigate environmental risks caused by landfill or incineration.