雾霾污染的空间外溢与治理政策的检验分析

以2006~2016年城市层面数据为样本，结合空间扩散效应深入探究雾霾污染的影响机理，并对已出台治霾政策的治理效果和传导机制进行识别.研究发现：考察期内我国雾霾污染具有一定时滞性、空间相关性和时空“警示作用”；以往环境规制由于诱发污染产业地区间就近转移对减霾贡献并未达到预期效果.“大气十条”的治霾效果明显，到2016年该政策的实施使重点关注的三大经济带PM_2.5显著降低约7.1%，其中，中部和东部区域政策实施城市治理效果最为显著；政策实施以来各地区环保部门通过对重污染企业的限产整治取得了降霾的短期治理效果，但对重污染企业的创新激励传导作用并不显著.因此，未来雾霾治理政策更需注重如何通过激发企业绿色技术创新从而建立根治雾霾污染的长效机制.

An analysis of the spatial spillover of smog pollution and policy testing

Taking 2006~2016 city-level data as a sample, combined with the spatial diffusion effect, the paper explored the impact mechanism of smog pollution, and it assessed the governance effect and transmission mechanism of the smog control policies. The study found that: smog pollution in China during the inspection period had a certain time lag, spatial correlation and space-time “warning effect”. In the past, environmental regulation did not contribute to the expected results in smog reduction due to the near-term transfer of polluting industries between regions. The “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan” had significant effects on the reduction of the smog concentrations. By 2016, the implementation of this policy has significantly reduced PM_2.5 in the three major economic belts by about 7.1%. Among them, the implementation of urban governance in the central and eastern regions has the most significant effect; since the implementation of the policy, environmental protection departments in various regions had achieved short-term effects of smog reduction by restricting production and remediation of heavily polluting enterprises, but the innovation incentive transmission effect on heavily polluting enterprises had not been significant. Therefore, future smog management policies need to focus more on how to establish long-term effects mechanism by stimulating corporate green technology innovation.