| 1999年9月21日台湾7.6级大震预报讨论 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭增建,吴瑾冰,胡辉.1999年9月21日台湾7.6级大震预报讨论[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(4):29-34. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭增建 吴瑾冰 胡辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地震局兰州地震研究所,甘肃兰州 730000
2. 中国科学院国家天文中心，北京100012 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院国家天文观测中心合作研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了用三性法（周期性，公度性，黄金分割性）对１９９９年９月２１日台湾７．６级大震的三要素预报，并用构造分段公式，“静中动判据”补充作了讨论。鉴于短监预报的重要，我们还用样暴倍九律，即预滑－磁暴－天气韵律模式对９．２１大震的发震日期的预报作了讨论。
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| 关 键 词： | 三必一法 构造分段 台湾省 9.21大震 地震预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-4574(2000)04-0029-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年4月13日 |
Discussion on prediction of the Ms7.6 september 21,1999 great earthquake in Taiwan Island |
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| GUO Zeng-Jian,WU Jin-bing,HU Hui.Discussion on prediction of the Ms7.6 september 21,1999 great earthquake in Taiwan Island[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,9(4):29-34. |
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| Authors: | GUO Zeng-Jian WU Jin-bing HU Hui |
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| Abstract: | The three elements of predicting the september 21, 1999 great earthquake Ms = 7.6 in the Taiwan island by means of the triplet method, the periodicity, the commensurability and golden section, are introduced. Using the formula of tectonic segmentation and the judgement of activity in quiescence, a supplementary discussion on the prediction is carried out. Seeing that short and immediate prediction of earthquake is very important, with use of the multiplied nine days regularity of magnetic storm, namely the precreep-magnetic stom-weather rhythm model, the occurrence date of the September 21, 1999 great earthquake is discussed. |
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| Keywords: | triplet method prediction of the September 21 great Taiwan earthquake tectonic segmentation judgement of activity in quiescence multiplied nine days regularity |
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