区域能源与大气环境污染宏观控制预警指标研究

调研、剖析了国内外能源弹性系数,找出能源弹性系数正常值.选择能源弹性系数对区域能源与大气环境宏观控制做预警研究,并进行实例分析.结果表明,能源弹性系数K的正常值是0.5,如果某区域的K值连续3年以上持续大于0.8,则表明该区域的能源需求量增长过快,相应地环境中的大气污染物的排放量也增长过快,使该区域的能源需求和环境污染治理面临巨大的压力.因此可以把K值作为区域能源与大气污染宏观控制的预警指标,同时也可以作为城市的考核指标.我国2001-2004年连续4年的能源生产(或消费)弹性系数在1～1.7之间,远远超过了正常值,应发出预警信号,查找原因,迅速改变目前的经济增长模式. 

Research on Early-Warning Indicators for Regional Pollution Control of Energy and Atmospheric Environment

The elasticity of energy both at home and abroad was investigated and analyzed,and the normal value of the elasticity of energy educed.The elasticity of energy was chosen to perform early-warning research on the macro-control of energy and atmospheric environment at regional level,and a case study was made.The results indicate that the normal value of the elasticity of energy(K) is 0.5.If the value of K in an area keeps greater than 0.8 in more than 3 years in succession,it means that the energy demand of the area increases too fast and, correspondingly,the air pollutants discharged to the environment also increase too fast,which makes the energy demand and environmental pollution control of the area face the enormous pressure.Therefore,K value can be regarded as the early-warning index for regional energy and air pollution macro-control,and it can also be the examination index for one city.From 2001 to 2004,China’s elasticity of energy was 1～1.7 for 4 successive years,far more than the normal value. Under this case,the ear-warning signal should be provided,and the causes should be found to rapidly change the current economic growth mode.