基于ARIMA-MC模型钢铁企业高炉煤气发生量预测

为了预测钢铁企业高炉煤气发生量,本文用ARIMA模型及马尔科夫链建立了ARIMA-MC模型对高炉煤气的发生量进行预测。结合某钢铁企业实际的原始数据,通过实验,随机抽取多组测试结果中的两组,1#和2#各30个点进行预测,结果表明预测平均相对误差分别为2.27%、3.03%。实验结果证明新算法的有效性。

Prediction of Blast Furnace Gas in Iron and Steel Enterprises Based on ARIMA -MC Model

In order to predict blast furnace gas from iron and steel enterprises ,ARIMA-MC Model is established based on ARIMA model and Markov chain to predict the blast furnace gas occurrence .In accordance with the primary data from one iron and steel enterprise ,two groups in several groups of test resluts are randomly selected to carry out prediction for blast furnace 1# and 2# in 30 prediction points and the average relative prediction errors are 2 .27% and 3 .03% respectively . The experimental results show the effectiveness of the algorithm .