基于蒙特卡罗方法的铅酸蓄电池厂土壤健康风险评价

以土壤中的风险指标(Pb,Cd,As)为研究对象,将蒙特卡罗模拟方法应用到某铅酸蓄电池厂土壤重金属的健康风险评价中,解决了土壤重金属影响人体健康风险的不确定性问题。结果表明,土壤中Pb对成人不存在非致癌风险,对儿童存在非致癌风险;土壤中Cd,As对成人、儿童都不存在致癌风险;影响Pb,Cd和As进入人体单位体重的致癌、非致癌风险水平大小的主要因素为土壤重金属浓度。研究结果在一定程度上可为铅酸蓄电池厂土壤不确定性健康风险评价提供参考依据。

Health Risk Assessment of the Soil from a Lead -acid Battery Factory Based on Monte Carlo Method

Taking the risk index (Pb ,Cd ,As)in soil as the research object ,the Monte Carlo simulation method is applied in health risk assessment of heavy metals in the soil of a lead -acid battery factory and the uncertainty of the heavy metals in soil of human health risk is solved .The result concludes that ,Pb doesn’t exist no-carcinogenic risk for adult ,but exist for children and while Cd and As don’t exist carcinogenic risks for adults and children .The heavy metal concentrations are the main factors affecting the level of Pb ,Cd and As into the human body unit weight of no -carcinogenic or carcinogenic risk . The research can provide a reference for the uncertainty of health risk assessment of the soil in a lead -acid battery factory .