A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe |
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Authors: | Marc J Metzger Dagmar Schröter Rik Leemans Wolfgang Cramer |
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Institution: | (1) Environmental Systems Analysis group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;(2) Plant Production Systems group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands;(3) Department of Global Change and Natural Systems, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany;(4) School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, United Kingdom |
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Abstract: | Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents
a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed
to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant questions about the vulnerability of the human-environment system to global change.
Scenarios were constructed for a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate. These scenarios
were used as inputs in a range of ecosystem models in order to assess the response of ecosystem function as well as the changes
in the services they provide. The framework was used to relate the impacts of changing ecosystem service provision for four
sectors in relation to each other, and to combine them with a simple, but generic index for societal adaptive capacity. By
allowing analysis of different sectors, regions and development pathways, the vulnerability assessment provides a basis for
discussion between stakeholders and policymakers about sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Keywords: | Vulnerability assessment Global change Ecosystem services Adaptive capacity Europe |
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