基于灰色模糊理论的流域水电规划环境影响综合评价

结合模糊优选理论和灰色关联分析方法，提出灰色模糊综合评价法，该方法将灰色关联分析作为优属度确定的隶属度计算方法；提出理想环境序列建立遵循的原则，引入梯形模糊数实现定性指标量化并采用变异系数法确定评价指标权重。应用灰色模糊综合评价法对黄河流域河段水电规划的高坝方案和多级开发方案进行了比选研究，计算了两个方案的优属度及其开发性因子、稳定性因子、保护性因子、经济活力因子、社会可接受因子、环境风险因子等6个指标层优属度，结果表明，多级开发方案总体优于高坝方案；多级开发方案的保护性远好于高坝开发方案，而高坝方案的开发性略好于多级开发方案，稳定性、经济活力、社会可接受、环境风险等因子两种方案比较接近。评价结果与流域实际情况比较符合，证明该方法是一种有效的方法。

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT BASED ON GREY FUZZY THEORY FOR BASIN HYDROPOWER PLANNING

Combined fuzzy optimization theory with grey correlation method,the grey fuzzy comprehensive assessment (GFCA) has been developed.The grey correlation analysis is the calculation method for membership grade of optimal membership degree in GFCA.The paper gave the principles for ideal environmental sequence building and the trapezoid fuzzy number for qualitative index quantification.In GFCA model,variation coefficient was used to decide index weighting.The research on a comparative election of one high dam and multiple step dams in the Yellow River Basin adopted by GFCA was carried out.The optimal membership degrees of two programs and their six target layers have been calculated,including developmental factor,stable factor,protective factor,economic factor,social accepted factor,and environmental risk factor.Results indicated that multiple step dams program outmatched one high dam program as a whole,from the point of view of protection,the former was much better than the one of the later,〖JP2〗but the later was slightly better than the former in developmental aspect,other aspects were close in the two programs.An agreement of the assessment result with physical situation shows that the GFCA method is available.