PM10 dispersion modeling for Treasure Valley, Idaho

The recorded exceedances of the 24-hr PM10 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) in Treasure Valley, Idaho, have been associated with prolonged stagnation periods during the winter. A comprehensive modeling study of PM10 impact in Treasure Valley was performed to support the State Implementation Plan (SIP). The study included base-year and short-term episodic conditions. The ISCST3 (Industrial Source Complex Short Term 3) model, using the base-year meteorology and gridded emissions of mobile sources, point sources, and wood burning as input, generally agreed well with measurements in both temporal patterns and annual averages. The WYNDvalley model was evaluated using monitoring data and was used to simulate the PM10 impact for episodic exceedances during stagnant winter conditions. An emission inventory was prepared for a base year (1995) and then extrapolated to the years 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 in order to determine air quality planning requirements. According to the simulations using base-year emissions and meteorology, exceedances are not expected. However, exceedances at some stations could be expected using projected emissions and episodic meteorology. Results from emission control strategies we developed indicate that mobile-source emissions have the most significant impact; reduction of 25% would be needed to eliminate the simulated exceedances in all projected years.